The Nile النيل a River of discord
On July 26, 2018, the project manager of the Renaissance Dam, a major energy project in Ethiopia, was shot dead in his car in the center of Addis Abeba. The construction of the dam raises many disputes. A strong nationalistic criticism in Egypt fear that the dam affects the water level. Egypt is 90% dependent on the river for its water supply. This assassination reflects the many tensions and worries of a likely water war in the second largest river in the world.
More than 55% of the world's population lives in international shared river basins. Today we will study the case of the Nile as a source of geopolitical conflict. This river can indeed be perceived as the spark of an inter-state conflict. Rising demographics, population density, global warming, resentment challenges and nationalistic discourse are leading to historic insecurity.
Study of the topography
Egypt is a gift of the Nile according to Herodotus (the first half of the 4th century BC).
Historically it is the cradle of Egyptian civilization. The Nile is the engine of the economic, agricultural, social and political organization of Egypt.
This river is shared by other countries located upstream of the river. In total, 10 countries share the nile basin (Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania). The hydrographic basin of the Nile covers 3,254,555 km2. The two major tributaries of the Nile are White Nile (14% of the total flow) and Blue Nile (59% of the total flow). White Nile originates in Lake Victoria and Blue Nile in Ethiopia. Nile is a vital element for upstream countries, it is an irrigation source for agriculture and thus covers the food needs of different countries. Cross-border management of the river is essential for this area. According to geographer Habib Ayeb, there were 60 million people in Egypt and 20 to 30 million in Sudan. Today, the Egyptian population reaches 80 million people and 40 million in Sudan. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi claims overpopulation and terrorism are the two real threats.
According to the demographer Youssef Courbage, we are witnessing an episode of "counter-demographic transition", the fertility index and the crude birth rate are starting to rise again according to surveys of the Demographic and Health Survey in 2008 and 2014.
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From a historical point of view
Numerous agreements have been held between Egypt and its riparian countries. A source of concern during British colonization, the Nile has always been at the center of focus. In 1929 an agreement on the waters of the nile was signed between Egypt and the British colonies namely Uganda, Kenya and Sudan. This agreement stipulates that Egypt has a right of veto on projects located upstream of the nile, it is the first historic agreement that gives Egypt a central place in the negotiations. The Aswan High Dam in 1956 symbolized economic development and massive hydropower production in post-colonial Egypt.In 1959, an agreement was signed between Egypt and Sudan. Egypt has the right to receive 55.5 billion cubic meters of nile water per year and in Sudan 18.5 billion cubic meters of water per year. These agreements are at the beginning of nationalist resentments. The Nile Basin Initiative was founded in 1999 by nine Basin countries (Burundi, DRC, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda) to develop co-operation for the purpose of regional peace and security. In May 2010, a Cooperative Framework Agreement to seek more water from the River Nile.
Egypt abandons its membership in the Cooperative framework agreement of 2010. These agreements remain contentious for all the countries dependent on the Nile.
Initially the British had given full priority to the nile of Egypt in relation to its riparian countries.
Indeed, the Nile belonged to Egypt during the British occupation. In 1920, many reservoirs and dams were installed to overcome the risk of a decrease in rainfall in Equatorial Africa. However, postcolonial wishes and the demographic transition have created a vital need for development for these countries but Egypt is the guarantor of most of the river.
In 1979, president Sadat wanted to express the concern about water "the only factor that could trigger a war is water" so where does the Egyptian fear come from?
A coveted river
The lack of consensus worsens the situation between countries and emerging countries such as Egypt and Ethipia. Indeed, Ethiopia is contesting more and more the hegemonic situation of Egypt.The fall of the socialist regime of Mengistu in 1991 and the end of the war against Eritrea in 2000 deeply disturbed the ethyopian demography. Knowing that 86% of the Nile flow in Aswan comes from Ethiopia.
For several years the Ehtiopia wants to use the nile to develop hydric resources conducive to hydro-electric use. Irrigation would enable Ethiopia to meet its food needs. Five of them are classified as food insecure by FAO. In the image of Ethiopia where barely 2% of the country's surface is irrigated, for a potential close to 25%. Five of them are classified as food insecure by FAO. In the image of Ethiopia where barely 2% of the country's surface is irrigated, for a potential close to 25%. The Ethiopian dam of the Renaissance, which will be the largest in Africa, crystallises tensions.
Extreme meteorological phenomena, rising temperatures disrupt and influence the internal politics of the countries in Ethiopia and Sudan in particular.
The Aswan Dam has made it possible to regulate the course of the river, and to constitute a reservoir in case of drought, under the orders of Nasser. Today Egypt faces a major dilemma, the active population in the agricultural sector is very important (35%). There is an increase in population and decrease in water availability, 922m in 1990 to 337m in 2025 according to Martin Hvidt.
Ethiopia must maintain food security for its people, Ethiopia needs to maintain a level of food security for its people. From 1990 to 2005 128,000 hectares of land will be irrigated according to FAO. The constitution of reservoir, dam and the cultivation of upstream lands may reduce the flow of the Nile. Many companies are involved in the construction of the dam mainly useful for irrigation.
Sudan is in great political instability between the conflict in Darfur and the North / South divide. As the civil war drew to close, million of people were faced with water scarcity and food shortages.
Thus many infrastructure projects are emerging as the construction of the dam north of Khartoum in 2004. The development of agricultural land in the desert would reduce hunger and food shortages.
Thus many infrastructure projects are emerging as the construction of the dam north of Khartoum in 2004. The development of agricultural land in the desert would reduce hunger and food shortages.
Today, negotiations are a major issue in water management. Cooperation is upcoming for all countries, but also for the different international economic organizations and the various stakeholders.
References
Hvidt.M., 1995. '' Water ressources planning in Egypt'' The Middle Eastern Environment : Selected papers of the 1995 Conference of the British Society of Middle Eastern Studies, St Malo Press.
Abebe.M., 1995. '' The Nile, Source of cooperation or conflict?'', Water International.
Maurice M Ndege., 1996. " Strain water demand and supply directions in the most stresses water systems of Eastern Africa'' Water Management in Africa and the Middle East Challenges and Opportunitie, International Development Research Centre.
Exploring Cooperative Transboundary River Management Strategies for the Eastern Nile Basin,
Kevin G. Wheeler and al, 2018, Water Ressources Research. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2017WR022149
Bakenaz A. Zeidan., 2018, "Transboundary Nile water gouvernance"
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